Out of three governments, two will lose poll in India. India has the highest rate of anti-incumbency in the world says economic analyst -Ruchir Sharma.
Sharma also viewed that economic development has a limited affect on election results in the country. This can be seen in a positive light by the average voter who feels empowered as despite of having money and muscle power, an incumbent may lose elections.
In order to prove his point, he stated that states where the growth rate was around 8 percent or more for a five-year period, saw a 50-50 chance of the government getting re-elected. There are about 30 such cases in India. Sharma said the very fact that with 8% growth, a government can still lose elections, which seems baffling.
There exist a number of people who fall for stories such as EVM rigging. The debate over ‘free press’ also creates apprehensions in the mind of the people.
Ruchir Sharma expressed his opinion on why the Indian people change their leaders so frequently by saying that it is because the longer leaders stay in power in India, the “more arrogant” they tend to become, hence giving birth to the “entire feeling of let’s keep changing the leaders”.
For the upcoming 2019 elections, Sharma said that “The 2019 elections are going to be a complete tossup. If I was a betting person, this time last year I would say chances of Modi getting re-elected were 99 to 1, which basically means it was a done deal… yes, it appeared that way after the UP-election wave. ”
“However, the odds have shifted dramatically. Now it is a 50:50 election and a lot is going to come down to alliances again. The opposition, from being totally fragmented, is now actually showing signs of coming together … that’s India for you, nobody likes if it becomes one-sided,” Sharma told PTI in an exclusive interview.