Middle East – The approaching turbulence

The end of World War-II was the start of a new era. The entire world wanted and pledged for peace through mutual coordination among all countries of the world under an umbrella called United Nations. But, the move of  Israel in occupying the Palestinian land by throwing out more than 750,000 Arab Palestinians ignited the Arab region and thus began a new disturbance in Middle East.

As Syria entered into 7th year of  civil war in 2017 and became the battlefield for world powers, it recently evidenced missile and air strikes from western alliance and Israel after the April 8 chemical attack.  In recent times there have been following activities that led to more disturbances:

  • There were repeated missile attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia’s cities in recent months.
  • Mass protests by Gaza residents against Israel
  • Legislation passed by parliament of Israel that gives power to Israel Prime Minister and Defense minister to go into war without the approval of full cabinet.
  • US may pull out of Iran Nuclear Deal

Newly appointed secretary of United States Mike Pompeo (former CIA director) visited Israel on Sunday and spoke about the Iranian dominance in Middle East as a threat to US interests in the region.

On Monday April 30, 2018, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a presentation exposing the secret documents of Iran’s ambitious Nuclear Program and raised voice for the scrap of the deal which is due to be verified by US president by a deadline of  May 12, 2018. This presentation was televised on the same night, but Netanyahu failed to convene the deal proponents.

President Trump also made Iran nuclear deal his election campaign agenda and promised to pull out of the Iran Nuclear deal, if elected as the President.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned, on Sunday, May 6, 2018, to USA of historic regret “like never before”,  if President Trump pull out of the Iran Nuclear deal. “If the United States leaves the nuclear agreement, you will soon see that they will regret it like never before in history,” reformist Rouhani said in a speech in northwestern Iran.

French president Emmanuel Macron told to German Weekly magazine ‘Der Spiegel’ on Sunday, May 6, 2018 that if US withdraws from Iran Nuclear deal then there could be war.

“Analyzing the previous events and studying the speech patterns, it is that USA and Israel are preparing the ground by fabricating the facts and evidences to justify pulling out of the Iran nuclear accord. Israel, an arch foe of Iran, has always opposed the Iran’s nuclear program and has been criticizing the deal on international stages since it was signed in 2015 by world powers and Iran. US may pull out of the Iran nuclear accord that may force Iran to run its nuclear program and to develop and produce nuclear weapons.”

  • Israel May Strike Iranian Military Establishments in Syria & Lebanon that May Lead to Direct Military Conflict Between Two Arch Foes in Near Future

As per sources, there was a fresh Airstrike on Sunday night  i.e. April 29, 2018 on a suspected missile storage site near Hama, Syria,  in which nearly 26 pro-regime fighters were killed and about 200 missiles were destroyed. Among 26 killed, at least 11 were Iranian. It is believed that Israel was behind this strike and targets included 47th brigade base.

Earlier On April 9, 2018,  a missile attack on T-4 airbase of Syria which was being used by Iranian forces as well, a total of 14 fighters were killed including 7 Iranian. Moreover, Russia and Iran blame Israel for this attack on Syrian airbase.

In response to the missile attack on military establishment of Iran in Syria, Iran promised, “this will not go unanswered”. Considering the retaliation by Iran, Israel is embracing to counter any retaliation by Iran and decided not to send its F-16 fighter jets in a joint exercise with USA that was supposed to begin on April 29, 2018.

Israel parliament approved a legislation to give power to its Prime Minister and Defense minister to go into war without the approval of full cabinet in “extreme circumstances”. This law was passed less than a day after Sunday night airstrike on Syrian base, killing mostly Iranians.

“Analyzing the previous events it is that Israel leadership may order more military strikes against Iran’s military establishments that may provoke Iran to retaliate and will lead to direct military conflict between Israel and Iran that may be joined by US and Russia to support their respective allies in military conflict”.

  • There could be war between Israel and Arab Countries.

Israel is facing rising tensions with Gaza, Syria and Iran. Gaza residents are protesting every Friday as a part of “The Great March of Return” ahead of 70th anniversary of Israel, that is going to be celebrated for six continuous weeks, starting on March 30, 2018 to continue till May 15, 2018.

This shows the growing frustration of Palestinians against Israel and may spark a fresh wave of violence which may be fueled by the decision of United States to move and inaugurate the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem on May 14, 2018.

United States decision to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem is gathering a widespread criticism worldwide even from its close allies like Saudi Arabia and becoming the cause of anger against USA and Israel in Arab league.

“Based on all the events and incidents, it is that there may be large scale protests all over the Arab region as a demonstration of anger against decision of USA to move embassy to Jerusalem. This may turn into violent protests and might be a fresh and powerful wave of turbulence that may lead to a military conflict between West-Israel alliance and Arabs”.

  • Saudi & USA Alliance May be in Danger

A cumulative decision of Qatar blockade by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain also angered US, as US has its biggest military base in Qatar where nearly 10,000 US troops are stationed.

Recently, ballistic missiles were fired by Houthi rebels from Yemen on cities of Saudi Arabia, which were intercepted by Saudi Air defense system, as per reports.  Saudi led Coalition forces are fighting against Houthi rebels in the poorest country of Arab region, Yemen.

Acquiring missile technology by Houthi rebels is also a matter of concern for Saudi Arabia as it may become a potential threat to Saudi Arabia.

On May 4, 2018, as per Yemeni Government officials, UAE forces have occupied Yemeni remote island, Socotra, a day after four military aircrafts and more than 100 troops were deployed to the island by UAE.

“The deteriorating situation in the Middle East, decision of President Trump to shift the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Israel, frequent attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels and blockade of sea, land and air routes of Qatar by Saudi Arabia has caused a strain in US-Saudi relations in recent times. This may force Saudi Arabia to leave US alliance and join Russia and its allies in the Middle East”.


CM Jakhar

A news enthusiast by hobby, CM is the founder of Prediction Junction. He is always passionate to dig into the latest in the world and has a natural way of depicting his analysis and thoughts. His main motive is to bring the true and recent piece on where the world is heading.

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