After US withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal on May 8, 2018, the world is awaiting to see the impact of scrapping the deal by US. Iran and other signatories are negotiating to keep the deal in place as it is crucial for the stability and peace in the most volatile region of the world. But, things are getting complex after US imposed sanctions on Iran and threatened to put sanctions on the firms and countries that will violate the US sanctions and will continue to trade with Iran.
Iran may not get the sufficient guarantee from Europe of being protected from US sanctions and may scrap the deal by itself.
Following the US withdrawal from Iran Nuclear deal, Iran said it would remain in deal only if Tehran gets sufficient guarantee from Europe of being protected from sanctions on key sectors of its economy such as oil – in cooperation with other signatories.
Additionally, Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited world capitals to discuss the alternatives of keeping the deal in place with other signatories (China, Russia, France and Germany). During Zarif’s visit, Russia, China and EU criticized the decision of US to withdraw from deal and vowed to be in deal and to protect their economies from heat of US sanctions.
Following this, the European ministers rushed to discuss the future of nuclear deal on May 15, 2018 in Brussels, after US president withdrew from Iran deal and vowed to impose toughest sanctions on Iran.
During Zarif’s visit to Europe Heiko Maas, the foreign minister of Germany signaled that it would not be easy to resolve the issue related to US withdrawal from Iran deal.
Moreover, after the deal was scrapped by US, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that he doesn’t believe that Iran will get sufficient guarantee from Europeans to be protected from sanctions. Mohammad Javad Zarif met Arias Canete, the European commissioner for Energy and climate on Sunday, May 20, 2018 and told the EU’s energy chief that European Union is not doing enough to protect the benefits for Iran from the 2015 Nuclear Pact.
“With the withdrawal of America … the European political support for the accord is not sufficient,” Mohammad Javad Zarif told Arias Canete in Tehran, Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported.
“The contradictions in the words of European authorities are suspicious. We hope that our government officials will be able to secure the necessary guarantees in their negotiations, as one cannot rely on those who vacillate and speak contradictory words,” IRNA quoted Ali Akbar Velayati as saying.
Later,on May 21, 2018, The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo in his first foreign policy speech threatened the “strongest sanctions in History” against Iran unless it complies with American demands regarding its missile program and regional behavior.
In response to this, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani dismissed the threats made by US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. Rouhani said in a statement carried by multiple Iranian News agencies, “Who are you to decide for Iran and the world?”.
Rouhani also added referring to Pompeo’s recent job as CIA director, “The world does not accept the logic by which a gentleman who was head of the spy services, decide for others”.
The underlying fact is that the Iranian leadership had already declared that Iran will not compromise self defense capabilities. Ballistic missiles are necessity against US and its powerful enemies in the region. So there is no scope of negotiating the pact targeting its ballistic missile program.
Despite the serious efforts by EU and other signatories to be in deal, Iran may not get sufficient guarantee from Europe of being protected from US sanctions. Threat of the strongest sanctions from US and no sufficient guarantee may force Iran to scrap the deal by itself. After scraping the deal Iran will accelerate its program of ballistic missile development and enrichment of weapon grade Uranium leading to the development of Nuclear bomb. Iran will not accept US decisions and will continue to do whatever is necessary for its security and sovereignty.